Commentary on the " Middle East water wars

article published by news.bbc.co.uk  May 30 - 2003

Commentary By Joseph Ellsworth CTO of XDOBS.COM LLC

© XDOBS.COM LLC  All Rights Reserved.

·        Any War is horribly expensive and should be avoided.  

·        Any water war in Middle East is unlikely to remain confined to the Middle East.

·        High level policy makers should shift resources as needed minimize risk of water war

·        To eliminate water wars simply act now to ensure everybody in affected region has adequate water 

·         A2WF technology can eliminate water shortages and hence eliminate risk of water war.

 


Man will fight when thirsty.

 

The problem described by the “Middle East water wars” does not appear to be fully mature but the risk will increase as a result of rapidly increasing populations placing greater demands on finite water resources.       Unfortunately the changing global climate is fairly likely to cause an increase in both the number and severity of droughts in regions that where already experiencing water scarcity could increase this risk.   This could accelerate the time of water conflicts.

 

Water scarcity represents a real problem because if you take a person who normally civilized and make that person thirsty enough they will willingly fight or steal to obtain that water.    The same thing holds true if a parent sees water or food needed to keep their children alive.  There are always exceptions but as a group, humans have a strong drive to survive and to ensure the survival of our children which when stressed in the wrong can strip away thousands of year’s worth of civilization.

 

When this drive for survival is multiplied by millions of people then regional wars become distinct possibility as the drive for critical water resources overwhelms normal inclination towards laws and negotiation. And as water becomes more scare even generous civilizations that would normally negotiate to share water will instead risk a war rather than share the water which would guarantee a loss of life or local famine.      As a result if water resources become scarce enough war to obtain access or to preserve access to water resources will be a natural result.    Darwin would say that water conflicts are a natural result of increased competition for critical resource and that the resulting death would lower the population enough to where it would eventually reach the carrying capacity of the land.   I would say that while Darwin has a point, Man has an advantage over the fruit fly because we can foresee the looming disaster and take action to avoid it.   If we can increase the amount of available water it would increase the carrying capacity of the land and avoid a large amount of suffering.

 

As the world priorities shift as a result of increasingly scarce water resources it will mandate a change in way water is valued to what is the social, economic cost if the water is missing.     A wise policy will be for senior policy makers most interested in avoiding wars to look at the cost of war and then spend some significant fraction of that on a solution that will prevent crisis from elevating to war.

War is expensive

War for any purpose is an incredibly expensive both financially and in the human toll.    The 911 disaster in New York has resulted in 27 billion in direct costs with over a 100 billion in indirect costs and increased defenses.   The 911 event was truly horrifying but was luckily the bulk of the damage was isolated into a small percentage of single cities if it had been larger event it could have easily resulted in 10 to 100 times more cost.   While most cities would not be likely to experience financial devastation at the scale as New York a significant conflict involving any large city will likely involve comparable losses.

 

As the people in the Middle East have shown, they seldom confine their aggression to only the near by countries.  They look at the allies of all the involved parties and strike at them in their home countries in an effort to remove the allies’ active support.   In some ways they are doing something very similar to the German U-boats attacking shipping to prevent supplies from allies making it to the combatants.  We can condemn it but it will not prevent those fighting a desperate fight for survival from using every means they think may help which means that these regional wars will be accompanies by increasing wave of terrorism many times worst than any we have seen previously.   This is a historical pattern that has been used many times throughout history so we can not expect it to change now.     

 

We in the USA can invest however much we want in homeland security which is a lot since the last budget increase was over 40 billion and it will help but it will be equally essential that we invest in preventing the war that will spawn an new generation of well organized and well trained attackers.

 

Senior policy makers should act now to eliminate risk of water war

To allow war to occur when simple financial investments can prevent it from occurring is a travesty in policy by senior officials.  It would represent a failure of organizations like UN to preserve the peace when it is entirely possible to avert the situation.   

 

 Citizens of all countries should be pressuring their governments to shift resources and assets as necessary to prevent this escalation of risk because if the water wars do occur they could easily impact all of us from an increase in terrorism on one side to a dramatic decrease in production from OPEC which would drive rapidly inflating energy costs on the other.

 

A2WH prevents water war by eliminating water shortage.

 

A2WH uses solar thermal energy to extract liquid water from the humidity which is found in all air.     The patent pending A2WH technology allows it to produce large volumes of water from relatively small amounts of land while requiring no source water, no grid electricity and no fuel.    The sun evaporates 2.7 billion gallons of water from world’s oceans every second so extracting water from air using solar energy represents the ultimate renewable resource.

 

The XDOBS patent pending A2WH technology is capable of being installed in mass and it will work extremely well in the Middle East where there is a large amount of solar energy available.   

 

A2WH ability to be installed on desolate desert land makes it a immediately feasible solution much more deployable and defensible than those which require premium ocean side real-estate.  Its ability to operate without grid electricity or fuel means that it is immune to the oil shortages and fluctuating energy prices which could be essential when planning to eliminate escalating tensions.   The fact that A2WH was designed specifically to be built using commodity products such as aluminum and acrylic plastics means that unlike Photovoltaic (PV) systems it can scale up adequately to address the emerging crises without spikes in price that PV has already encountered as a result of high purity silicon shortages.

 

All throughout the Middle East there are significant tracts of unused desert land which we can put to work producing the water needed to avoid the water wars.   It also requires capital to equip the land but the amount of capital needed will be a small chunk of the cost that could be incurred if the water wars are allowed to become reality.

 

The Middle East areas hit hardest by water shortages receive over 2,500 megawatts of energy  every square mile which equates 23,309,893 KWh (Kilowatt hours) of energy from the sun every day .   We use that free energy to harvest water directly from the air.    Every square mile of A2WH installed will produce approximately 4,000 gallons of safe potable water every day  or 1.5 million gallons per year.    

The World Health organization indicates that people can survive on about 6 gallons per day long term so 4,000 gallons per day is enough to provide for 666 people with survival water.    

 

Famine is also risk but the “Eden” project in Nigeria has provide a good example of using drought hardy edible plants as a way to minimize this risk but countries thought that region should be making extensive efforts to spread these desert hardy plants as wide as possible in their local country now.       

 

We ultimately need to provide a minimum of an additional 20 gallons per day per person to support basic food production which totals 26 gallons per day so our 4,000 gallons per acre of land can support and help feed 152 people.      This works quite favorably in countries which have a lot of desolate land since it only requires 6,600 acres to produce enough water to support a million people.   Increase it to 9,000 acres per million and they would even have enough surplus for an occasional shower.

When dealing with larger cities type scales the A2WH technology can produce the 250 billion gallons per year using only 290 square miles of land.   This is enough water to support a major desert city like Las Vegas using less than 4% of the land in their surrounding county.

 

A way to ensure good neighbors

The same country and people who would fight to the death to protect their water resources would be quite likely to offer long term leases on land to install the A2WH units to help out their neighbors especially if they understand that this would prevent the need for those neighbors to invade them and take their water by force.   

 

Each relationship is different but if I was a small wealthy country I may well invest the capital needed to install the A2WH units for my neighbor country if I thought it would prevent a war.   In addition if I did install these units I could sell the resulting water to my neighbor at a premium while at the same time ensuring that if they did invade it would destroy the A2WH units that are producing the water they need.   This would provide an incredible disincentive for them to attack my country since if they did attack they may well end up with less water.

 

Even a short war will impose incredible costs and human suffering so it is much cheaper to invest up front in the A2WH units to eliminate the need for a water war.

 

The A2WH (Air to water harvest) solution produces liquid water during the worst droughts.  It has no adverse environmental impact and takes advantage of the free solar energy resource

 

A2WH can use land that is undesirable for other purposes which keeps cost low.     If the land is carefully chosen to be uphill from the city electricity can even be recaptured from the energy of the generated water running down hill.     It can be installed in smaller chunks which minimizes the needs for long pipelines and it can not be impacted by industrial contaminants in the water which are always a risk with desalination.

 

In the past extracting liquid water from the air has been very expensive but with XDOBS patent pending solar thermal approach  has made it competitive with other water sources such as Coastal Desalination and due to it’s immunity from oil prices it will out perform most of these sources over time.  

 

Why it is worth investing in Safe Potable water for every one

 

Any war is horribly expensive and any war in the Middle East is likely to spread and could easily impact countries who would normally think they are non participants.        If there is a war in this region than many of the industrialized countries especially America and England will see increased waves of terrorism possibly from both sides of the conflict.     Since the Water issue tends to transcend traditional alliances we may well see more than once conflict waging at a time which will further inflame and spread the hostilities.   

 

Now obviously this is the worst case situation and senior diplomats from many countries will work tirelessly to avoid the escalation but they will be working against fundamental survival drives.   The best way to keep the situation under control is to identify the likely shortage locations and invest aggressively to ensure adequate water.

 

One of the traditional solutions is to drill an ever increasing number of wells  but in these dry countries the aqua quivers have very slow recovery capability so more wells will only accelerate the point of aqua quiver collapse.   This is made even worse by the higher risk of more long term droughts which make less surface water available while at the same time reducing the aqua quiver recovery rates.   These combined will actually escalate the tensions and risk of war so it is essential than any solution be sustainable indefinitely even during 10 to 15 year droughts.   The A2WH technology is the only one we are aware of that has this ability other than coastal desalination plants which may also  be a good choice.

 

The problem with coastal refineries

The XDOBS A2WH solution has a patent pending enhancement for use in areas where there is a regular source of salt water or other contaminated water sources.   This generally allows us to produce 7 times as much water per acre of A2WH installation.     We still have to arrange for the disposal of the concentrated salt brine but there are a number of viable options for tackling this issue.   There is a second patent pending enhancement for ocean side use that doesn’t have any brine disposal issues and still increases efficiently several times but increases risk of severe weather damage marginally.    This combination keeps the benefits of the XDOBS A2WH units such as no need for using the power grid while competing quite favorably with any other technology for production of fresh water from salt or brackish water.

 

The problem with coastal refineries is that they require some of the areas premium real-estate right on the edge of the ocean.     As a result of being on the beach, all the water they produce must be pumped up hill,   They consume large amounts of electricity which will only get more expensive and their filters can be fouled by industrial chemicals which are found in increasing concentrations especially in heavily industrialized areas.

 

The Desalination plants must generally be installed in large 100 million+ increments to be cost effective; they have uncertain environmental effects as is demonstrated in 250 million dollar Tampa facility.   In addition they are susceptible to a wide range of problems one of which was also demonstrated in Tampa when the intakes clogged with floating seaweed.

 

A large number of cities are not located adjacent to the ocean where they can easily access the salt water and even if the could build a pipeline they would still have a problem disposing of the waste products like concentrated brine.

 

The problem with using nuclear power plants to power the coastal desalination plants is that the long term cost is unclear.    The problem of spent fuel storage is so extreme that it is commonly being stored on location in a manner that would never be approved by EPA for long term storage.   Every state fights nuclear storage on their land and the time scale involved makes budgets impossible to predict.  

 

The problem with using Oil to power the coastal water purification systems is that it produces relatively expensive electricity and the plants use a lot of electricity.  In addition the supply of oil isn’t a sure thing even in the Middle East and the increasing world market prices for oil will cause the cost of the water to continue escalating over time.

 

Links & Background:

Water related wars tensions

·         Water Hot spots - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/world/03/world_forum/water/html/default.stm

·         Water Conflict Chronology  - http://www.worldwater.org/conflictIntro.htm

·         Planet Ark : Scientists Say Risk of Water Wars Rising - http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/26728/story.htm

·         ZNet |Bolivia | The Second Water War in Bolivia http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=52&ItemID=6893

·         The coming water wars  - http://www.mcgill.ca/reporter/33/02/water/

·         Tide of Sentiment Shifts in Water War  - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/14/AR2006011400820.html

·         Water Conflicts  - http://www.rainwaterharvesting.org/Conflicts/Conflicts.htm

·         Water Conflict Chronology - http://www.worldwater.org/conflictIntro.htm

·         The Cauvery Water War:  - http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/staff/pelkey/cauvery.htm

·         War on the Water Front

·         As the thirst for bottled water grows, a battle is brewing over precious resources--and profits  - http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1139827,00.html

·         climate change and water wars  - http://www.oilempire.us/water.html

·          

Cost of War and Violent Conflict

·         Financial Toll From 9/11 'Depends on What You Count' - http://www.lifeway.com/lwc/article_main_page/0,1703,A%253D154989%2526M%253D50011,00.html

·         Economic Costs to the United States Stemming From the 9/11 Attacks - http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/aug02/homeland.asp

·          

Need for High purity Silicon would prevent PV deployment at needed scale

·         Silicon Shortage Stalls Solar - http://www.wired.com/news/planet/0,2782,67013,00.html

·         Planet Ark : Solar Firms Say Silicon Shortage Will Stall Growth - http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/30382/story.htm

 

 

The problem with high purity silicon may have a more profound impact than immediately apparent.   There are several problems maturing like increasing chronic shortages of water in the Middle East and peak demand power shortages.    All combined these problems could easily demand PV deployment in the range of 500 times their current annual volumes to adequately address the problem.     Since high purity silicon shortages cause price spikes even at current production volumes it basically prevents PV use to solve these emerging problems which would need hundreds of times more production.   

 

We at XDOBS have tried to do our part by inventing products like A2WH that harvests water from air using Solar Thermal heat energy.  We anticipated the silicon shortage impact on PV so we designed specifically use bulk products like Aluminum.  As a result we can scale without risk of resource shortages causing price spikes.

 

If global warming does trigger the number of droughts world wide that experts are predicting it will take all of our production plus any that can be produced by the PV people and even then it may not be enough to avoid wide spread human suffering.     Increasingly short sThe Water war fears have reached a level where even highly placed UN people are talking about  it and nobody is putting good solutions on the table.     It is in the best interest of the USA to deploy technology as rapidly as possible to eliminate the war risk factors wherever possible and PV can play a key part in that deployment but only if the prices can come down with massively larger deployment. 

 

On one side I hope the Silicon refinery people like Homan never do figure out how to produce more at a lower price and my understanding is that it is a pretty significant hurdle due to the purity requirements.  This obviously keeps PV from being able to effectively compete in our markets but on the other hand the world is poised with a set of maturing problems that could drive a renaissance in  renewable energy that would result in dramatic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and we will need the PV guys at full stride to help make this happen.